Citation Chan M, Srividya A, Norman R, Pani SP, Ramaiah KD, Vanamail P, Michael E, Das PK & Bundy DAP (1998) Epifil: a dynamic model of infection and disease in lymphatic filariasis. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 59 (4), pp. 606-614. http://www.ajtmh.org/content/59/4/606.full.pdf+html
Abstract The lack of a quantitative framework that describes the dynamic relationships between infection and morbidity has constrained efforts aimed at the community-level control of lymphatic filariasis. In this paper, we describe the development and validation of EPIFIL, a dynamic model of filariasis infection intensity and chronic disease. Infection dynamics are modeled using the well established immigration-death formulation, incorporating the acquisition of immunity to infective larvae over time. The dynamics of disease (lymphodema and hydrocele) are modeled as a catalytic function of a variety of factors, including worm load and the impact of immunopathological responses. The model was parameterized using age-stratified data collected from a Bancroftian filariasis endemic area in Pondicherry in southern India. The fitted parameters suggest that a relatively simple model including only acquired immunity to infection and irreversible progression to disease can satisfactorily explain the observed infection and disease patterns. Disease progression is assumed to be a consequence of worm induced damage and to occur at a high rate for hydrocele and a low rate for lymphodema. This suggests that immunopathology involvement may not be a necessary component of observed age-disease profiles. These findings support a central role for worm burden in the initiation and progression of chronic filarial disease.
Journal American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene: Volume 59, Issue 4
Chan, Man-Suen; Srividya, AdiNarayanan; Norman, Rachel; Pani, S P; Ramaiah, Kapa D; Vanamail, Perumal; Michael, Edwin; Das, Pradeep K; Bundy, Don A P