Benkirane S, Norman R, Scott E & Shankland C (2012) Measles epidemics and PEPA: An exploration of historic disease dynamics using process algebra. In: Giannakopoulou D & Mery D (eds.) FM 2012: Formal Methods: 18th International Symposium, Paris, France, August 27-31, 2012. Proceedings. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 7436. FM 2012: Formal Methods 18th International Symposium, Paris, France, 27.08.2012-31.08.2012. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag, pp. 101-115. http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-642-32759-9_11; https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-32759-9_11
We demonstrate the use of the process algebra PEPA for realistic models of epidemiology. The results of stochastic simulation of the model are shown, and ease of modelling is compared to that of Bio-PEPA. PEPA is shown to be capable of capturing the complex disease dynamics of the historic data for measles epidemics in the UK from 1944--1964, including persistent fluctuations due to seasonal effects.
process algebra; epidemiology; measles