The effect of contact heterogeneity and multiple routes of transmission on final epidemic size



Kiss IZ, Green D & Kao RR (2006) The effect of contact heterogeneity and multiple routes of transmission on final epidemic size. Mathematical Biosciences, 203 (1), pp. 124-136.

Heterogeneity in the number of potentially infectious contacts amongst members of a population increases the basic reproduction ratio (R0) and markedly alters disease dynamics compared to traditional mean-field models. Most models describing transmission on contact networks only account for one specific route of transmission. However, for many infectious diseases multiple routes of transmission exist. The model presented here captures transmission through a well defined network of contacts, complemented by mean-field type transmission amongst the nodes of the network that accounts for alternative routes of transmission. The impact of these combined transmission mechanisms on the final epidemic size is investigated analytically. The analytic predictions for the purely mean-field case and the transmission through the network-only case are confirmed by individual-based network simulations. There is a critical transmission potential above which an increased contribution of the mean-field type transmission increases the final epidemic size while an increased contribution of the transmission through the network decreases it. Below the critical transmission potential the opposite effect is observed.

epidemiology; contact heterogeneity; scale-free networks; transmission; final epidemic size

Mathematical Biosciences: Volume 203, Issue 1

Publication date30/09/2006

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Dr Darren Green

Dr Darren Green

Senior Lecturer, Institute of Aquaculture