Hedging long-term commodity risk

Citation

Veld-Merkoulova YV & de Roon FA (2003) Hedging long-term commodity risk. Journal of Futures Markets, 23 (2), pp. 109-133. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.10060

Abstract
This study focuses on the problem of hedging longer-term commodity positions, which often arises when the maturity of actively traded futures contracts on this commodity is limited to a few months. In this case, using a rollover strategy results in a highs residual risk, which is related to the uncertain futures basis. We use a one-factor term structure model of futures convenience yields in order to construct a hedging strategy that minimizes both spot-price risk and rollover risk by using futures of two different maturities. The model is tested using three commodity futures: crude oil, orange juice, and lumber. In the out-of-sample test, the residual variance of the 24-month combined spot-futures positions is reduced by, respectively, 77%, 47%, and 84% compared to the variance of a naive hedging portfolio. Even after accounting for the higher trading volume necessary to maintain a two-contract hedge portfolio, this risk reduction outweighs the extra trading costs for the investor with an average risk aversion.

Keywords
; Commodity control

Journal
Journal of Futures Markets: Volume 23, Issue 2