Measles as a Case Study in Nonlinear Forecasting and Chaos

Citation

Grenfell BT, Kleczkowski A, Ellner SP & Bolker BM (1994) Measles as a Case Study in Nonlinear Forecasting and Chaos. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 348 (1688), pp. 515-530. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1994.0108

Abstract
This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability of these predominantly biennial epidemic series, compared to New York City, which shows mixtures of one-, two-and three-year epidemics. This analysis also indicates the importance of choosing correct embeddings to avoid bias in prediction. Forecasting for English cities indicates significant spatial heterogeneity in predictability before vaccination and an overall drop in predictability during the vaccination era. The interpretation of predictions of observed measles series by epidemiological models is explored and areas for refinement of current models discussed.

Journal
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences: Volume 348, Issue 1688