Durham RC, Chambers J, Macdonald RR & Fisher PL (2009) Predictive Validity of Two Prognostic Indices for Generalized Anxiety Disorder. International Journal of Cognitive Therapy, 2 (4), pp. 383-399. https://doi.org/10.1521/ijct.2009.2.4.383
This paper reports an investigation of the predictive power, at posttreatment and long-term follow-up, of two prognostic indices reflecting the complexity and severity of presenting problems and the quality of the therapeutic alliance in early sessions of therapy. Of entrants to two clinical trials of cognitive behavior therapy for generalized anxiety disorder, 51% (106 of 207) were assessed 2-10 years following original treatment. Outcome measures comprised Clinical Global Severity, rated by an independent assessor, and the trait version of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. The two prognostic indices were broadly equivalent in predictive power at posttreatment (together explaining about 38% of the variance in outcome) but at long-term follow-up only the prognostic index reflecting complexity and severity of presenting problems was significantly associated with outcome. The potential value of refined and improved versions of these prognostic indices is discussed from a clinical and theoretical perspective.
International Journal of Cognitive Therapy: Volume 2, Issue 4