How to predict the 2014 World Cup winner (in one simple equation): determinants of national football team results 2011-2013 - a new methodology

Citation

Scelles N & Andreff W (2014) How to predict the 2014 World Cup winner (in one simple equation): determinants of national football team results 2011-2013 - a new methodology. Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary, 38 (1), pp. 100-103. https://www.strath.ac.uk/media/departments/economics/fairse/backissues/Fraser_Economic_Commentary,_Vol_38_No_1.pdf

Abstract
This short note sets out an approach to predicting national football team results using a new, hybrid economics-based methodology. It draws on previous work in the field and was tested on almost 3,000 international football matches over the period 2011- 2013. The same methodology can be used in a predicative way and could be used, for example, to predict the result of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. A forthcoming article to be published by the Fraser Economic Commentary will seek to predict Scotland's likely progress in the forthcoming Euro 2016 competition.

Journal
Fraser of Allander Institute Economic Commentary: Volume 38, Issue 1