Gender and the business cycle: An analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Citation

Razzu G & Singleton C (2016) Gender and the business cycle: An analysis of labour markets in the US and UK. Journal of Macroeconomics, 47 (Part B), pp. 131-146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.12.006

Abstract
Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8–1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.

Keywords
Gender; Worker flows; Unemployment; Participation; The Great Recession

Journal
Journal of Macroeconomics: Volume 47, Issue Part B

People

Dr Carl Singleton

Senior Lecturer in Economics, Economics