Article

Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility

Citation

Kambouroudis D, McMillan D & Tsakou K (2021) Forecasting realized volatility: The role of implied volatility, leverage effect, overnight returns, and volatility of realized volatility. Journal of Futures Markets, 41 (10), pp. 1618-1639. https://doi.org/10.1002/fut.22241

Abstract
We forecast realized volatility extending the heterogeneous autoregressive model (HAR) to include implied volatility (IV), the leverage effect, overnight returns, and the volatility of realized volatility. We analyze 10 international stock indices finding that, although a simple HAR model augmented with IV (HAR-IV) is more accurate than any HAR model excluding it, all markets support further extensions of the HAR-IV model. More accurate forecasts are found using overnight returns in all markets except the UK, the volatility of realized volatility in the US, and the leverage effect in five markets. A value-at-risk exercise supports the economic significance of our findings.

Keywords
HAR modeling and forecasting; implied volatility indices; leverage effect; overnight returns; realized volatility

Journal
Journal of Futures Markets: Volume 41, Issue 10

StatusPublished
Publication date31/10/2021
Publication date online31/07/2021
Date accepted by journal02/06/2021
URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/32945
ISSN0270-7314
eISSN1096-9934