Skip header navigation

University of Stirling

×

Article

One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics

Citation
Kleczkowski A, Hoyle A & McMenemy P (2019) One model to rule them all? Modelling approaches across OneHealth for human, animal and plant epidemics. Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences, 374 (1775), Art. No.: 20180255. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0255

Abstract
One hundred years after the 1918 influenza outbreak, are we ready for the next pandemic? This paper addresses the need to identify and develop collaborative, interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral approaches to modelling of infectious diseases including the fields of not only human and veterinary medicine, but also plant epidemiology. Firstly, the paper explains the concepts on which the most common epidemiological modelling approaches are based, namely the division of a host population into susceptible, infected and removed (SIR) classes and the proportionality of the infection rate to the size of the susceptible and infected populations. It then demonstrates how these simple concepts have been developed into a vast and successful modelling framework that has been used in predicting and controlling disease outbreaks for over 100 years. Secondly, it considers the compartmental models based on the SIR paradigm within the broader concept of a ‘disease tetrahedron’ (comprising host, pathogen, environment and man) and uses it to review the similarities and differences among the fields comprising the ‘OneHealth’ approach. Finally, the paper advocates interactions between all fields and explores the future challenges facing modellers.

Keywords
infectious disease; OneHealth; compartmental models; bio-economic models; plant pathogens; epidemiological data

Journal
Philosophical Transactions B: Biological Sciences: Volume 374, Issue 1775

StatusPublished
Author(s)Kleczkowski, Adam; Hoyle, Andy; McMenemy, Paul
FundersBiotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council
Publication date30/06/2019
Publication date online06/05/2019
Date accepted by journal11/02/2019
URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/1893/29806
PublisherThe Royal Society
ISSN0962-8436
eISSN1471-2970
Scroll back to the top