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Economic expectations and the decision to migrate: An analysis by socio-economic group

Hart RA (1973) Economic expectations and the decision to migrate: An analysis by socio-economic group, Regional Studies, 7 (3), pp. 271-285.

This paper contains two main findings. Firstly, there is both theoretical and empirical justification for the view that inter-regional migration in Great Britain is a function of the income and the employment expectations of potential migrants rather than their observation of spatial economic differentials at a point in time. Secondly, if one disaggregates migrants by socio-economic groups there is evidence that the various groups respond somewhat differently to the economic stimuli. The conclusion is that by introducing the dynamics behind the migration decision as well as observing migrants in economically cohesive groups we are able to gain a greater insight into the mechanism behind the economic migration process. However, the explanatory power of the dynamic model still leaves much to be desired. It would appear that an ideal solution awaits the construction of sound time-series migration data at the macro level.

Expectations; Socio-economic groups; Rates of change; Adaptive expectations; Data; Least squares results; Regional economic differentials; Heteroscedasticity

AuthorsHart Robert A
Publication date1973
PublisherTaylor & Francis (Routledge) for the Regional Studies Association
ISSN 0034-3404

Regional Studies: Volume 7, Issue 3 (1973)

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