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A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders

McCaig C, Begon M, Norman R & Shankland C (2011) A Symbolic Investigation of Superspreaders, Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 73 (4), pp. 777-794.

Superspreaders are an important phenomenon in the spread of infectious disease, accounting for a higher than average number of new infections in the population. We use mathematical models to compare the impact of supershedders and supercontacters on population dynamics. The stochastic, individual based models are investigated by conversion to deterministic, population level Mean Field Equations, using process algebra. The mean emergent population dynamics of the models are shown to be equivalent with and without superspreaders; however, simulations confirm expectations of differences in variability, having implications for individual epidemics.

Changing scale; Mean field equation derivation from process algebra

Subject headings
Communicable diseases Mathematical models; Population biology Mathematical models

AuthorsMcCaig Chris, Begon Mike, Norman Rachel, Shankland Carron
Publication date04/2011
PublisherSpringer Verlag
ISSN 0092-8240

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology: Volume 73, Issue 4 (2011-04)

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