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Article in Journal ()

Risk and uncertainty in central bank signals: an analysis of monetary policy committee minutes

Citation
Dow S, Klaes M & Montagnoli A (2009) Risk and uncertainty in central bank signals: an analysis of monetary policy committee minutes, Metroeconomica, 60 (4), pp. 584-618.

Abstract
This paper considers the signalling aspect of monetary policy. We introduce a heuristic framework for the study of signal uncertainty, and use this to analyse the signal uncertainty implicit in the communications of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Our findings suggest that frequencies of key terms expressing signal uncertainty in MPC minutes may either reflect the degree of confidence implicit in MPC deliberations, or offer evidence for the presence of an irreducible kind of signal uncertainty that shows up as white noise, casting doubt on the soundness of the various qualitative uncertainty indices found in the literature.

StatusPublished
AuthorsDow Sheila, Klaes Matthias, Montagnoli Alberto
Publication date11/2009
PublisherWiley-Blackwell
ISSN 0026-1386
LanguageEnglish

Journal
Metroeconomica: Volume 60, Issue 4 (NOV 2009)

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